As President Donald Trump continues negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear aspirations, historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Victor Davis Hanson said he believes that the president is preparing his non-interventionist supporters for the possibility of a more forceful confrontation in the Middle East.
On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump frequently touted his record of avoiding new wars during his first term and emphasized his plans to quickly resolve ongoing conflicts, such as the one in Ukraine. But Trump has also described his foreign policy approach as one of “peace through strength,” and he has been willing to threaten military action to press his agenda.
In March, as the president began his push for a new deal restricting Iran’s nuclear program, he warned, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing.”
In a recent interview with Jan Jekielek, host of EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,” Hanson described Trump as having to thread the needle with how he handles his next steps with Iran.
“The MAGA covenant he ran on said no optional Middle East wars, no foreign entanglements, and it’s always better to jawbone than to go to war,” he said.
While the Trump administration has joined successive rounds of indirect talks with Iranian representatives, Hanson assessed that Israeli leaders feel that the current moment provides a good opportunity to strike Iran.
Hanson said that even if the negotiations don’t result in a deal, Trump could use the opportunity to acclimate his base to the Israeli point of view.
“He’s saying to Israel: ‘Let’s just get six or seven months of negotiation. ... We‘ll negotiate to the point where they have to shut up or put up. And if you’re right ... then we have a case to be made to our MAGA base,’” Hanson said.
Syria
Hanson assessed Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria as an important opportunity to further isolate Tehran and diminish its influence across the Middle East.
Assad fled the country in December 2024, amid a surprise offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist faction that began as the al-Qaeda terrorist group’s Syrian offshoot, and which the U.S. government still considers a foreign terrorist organization.
After seizing Damascus, a rebel-led council chose Ahmed al-Sharaa—the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—as president of a new self-styled Syrian transitional government. The council has named other Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham members to top leadership positions in this transitional government.
Since taking power, Sharaa has tried to present himself as more of a moderate than his past would suggest. In turn, the United States has shown reduced hostility.
In President Joe Biden’s last weeks in office, his administration retracted a $10 million bounty against Sharaa, opening the way for then-Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf to meet with the ascendant Syrian warlord.
This month, Trump announced he would retract sanctions against Syria “to give them a chance at greatness.” Trump met with Sharaa during his Middle East tour last week and announced he was considering normalizing ties with Syria’s new leadership.
Trump also urged Sharaa to join the Abraham Accords, a framework for normalizing relations between Israel and its various Muslim neighbor states.
Despite Sharaa’s past, Hanson assessed that Turkey, Israel, Syria’s Kurdish population, and the neighboring Arab states all prefer him to Assad, and he indicated that Trump may feel the same.
“There may be terrorists, but they may be directed in other directions,“ Hanson said. ”I don’t know. But all of these interests felt that it was superior to the Assad regime. And most of the interests were pro-American.”
