The United States is expected to output a record 13.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in 2026, with four new oil production projects expected to come online by the end of the year.
If the 2026 output projections materialize, it would surpass the U.S. oil output record of 13.7 million bpd set last year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a Sept. 10 statement.
Oil production in the first half of 2026 has already exceeded output from the same period last year, with most of the growth concentrated in the Gulf of America and the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico.
In the Gulf of America region, crude oil output rose by 10 percent in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025. Oil output is forecast to rise by 3 percent in 2026 overall in the Gulf of America.
The EIA stated that it is expecting four new oil production projects to go live in the region by the end of 2026, “further contributing to forecast production growth this year.”
However, the agency warned that hurricanes could disrupt these projects’ development and production timelines.
Oil production growth in the Gulf of America in the first half of 2026 was driven by four oil projects that came online in the past year. In January 2025, the Whale Floating Production Unit (FPU) came online and has produced an average of 38,000 bpd. In April 2025, the Ballymore project went live and averaged 58,000 bpd.
The Shenandoah FPU has averaged 70,000 bpd since going online in July 2025. The fourth project, Salamanca FPU, went live late last year and has averaged 25,000 bpd.
In the Permian region, production is forecast to grow by 3 percent annually, driven by higher oil prices.
Last year, the United States was the world’s largest crude oil producer. Russia ranked second, followed by Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, the gap in oil production between the United States and other top producers widened, with Russian output remaining largely unchanged year-over-year, while Saudi Arabia reported a modest increase.
The EIA’s forecast for a record U.S. oil output this year comes amid concerns about declining global demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a Sept. 11 report that global oil demand is expected to shrink by 2.5 million bpd in 2026.
“With the protracted US–Iran diplomatic standoff and renewed attacks in both the Gulf and the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb choke point continuing to hamper the normalization of oil flows, we have further cut our supply and demand projections for the remainder of the year,” the report reads.
The conflict between the United States and Iran has escalated in recent days.
On Sept. 10, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions against networks that it said supported Iran-backed terrorist groups Kataib Hezbollah and Lebanese Hezbollah. Iran’s military previously warned on Sept. 9 that it would sharply escalate its response to U.S. strikes.
Oil Market Forecast
The EIA stated in a September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook report that Middle East oil output is expected to improve over the next year.
“We forecast oil production in the Middle East will rise in the coming months because of gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the use of alternative routes out of the region,” the report reads.
“However, we assume some constraints to exporting oil from the Middle East will persist through the end of the year, which keeps crude oil production in the region below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027.”
U.S. President Donald Trump recently said the U.S. war with Iran could likely end after the midterm elections, set to be held on Nov. 3.
In a Truth Social post on Sept. 7, Trump said gasoline prices could go down to $3 per gallon and ultimately below $2 once the United States wins the war against Iran. A gallon of regular gasoline cost $4.31 per gallon on average nationwide on Sept. 12.
