Today, voters in Virginia will head to the polls for a high-stakes referendum—whether to redraw the state’s congressional map to favor Democrats.

Under the proposal put forward by Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and the state’s Democratic trifecta, the map would be shifted to drastically favor Democrats. While Republicans currently hold five of the state’s 11 House seats, the redrawn map could bring about a 10–1 Democratic House delegation.

The proposal to amend Virginia’s state constitution would remain in effect until 2030, when districting would return to an independent process.

The map laid out in the special election referendum, if accepted and approved by state courts, would go into effect in November. Early voting in the referendum has already closed.

Supporters of the plan, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), have characterized it as a necessary response to a mid-decade redistricting battle begun by Republicans. Critics say that it would disenfranchise the state’s Republican voters.

Under the redrawn map, the singular Republican district would represent a huge chunk of the sparser-populated western portion of the state, a region of Appalachia where Republicans dominate.

In the eastern part of the state, however, previously Republican districts around the outskirts of Richmond, along the border with North Carolina, and along the eastern coasts would become Democrat-controlled seats.

Within the state, positions have largely broken down along rural and urban lines.

In Richmond and Northern Virginia, some Democrats have rejoiced at the push, urging a “Yes” vote as a response to what they see as an overreaching Trump administration. These voters, who tend to work in military, contracting, governmental, and other professional sectors, often favor Democrats.

In rural Virginia, meanwhile, Republican voters fear the prospect of the referendum passing—an outcome that would find some Virginians represented by a Democrat for the first time in recent memory. These voters have urged a “No” vote on the referendum.

Nevertheless, recent polling has consistently shown that “Yes” is favored—only a single poll taken since January, by the Neighborhood Research Corporation, found a 1 percent lead for “No.” 

None of the polls have shown a double-digit lead for the “Yes” position, suggesting that it remains favored—but a tight race seems likely.

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), whose eastern coast 2nd congressional district would be redrawn to favor Democrats under the new maps, has urged a “No” vote.

“People in Virginia ... deserve representation that reflects their values, that reflects their political ideologies and priorities,” Kiggans said at an April 10 political event. “And having 92 percent of our Commonwealth represented by one party certainly does not do that.”

Former Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.) have campaigned against the measure in the state.

President Donald Trump, who has never come within five points of winning the state in a presidential contest, has largely stayed out of the referendum.

Jeffries has strongly backed the bid, which, if approved by voters and Virginia courts, could help Democrats reclaim the House during the 2026 midterm elections.

The outcome of the Virginia special election, Jeffries said during an interview, will  “impact what the policy landscape is going to look like for years—if not generations—to come.”

Over $90 million has been raised by both sides in the election, with most of it flowing to a group in favor of the referendum and the redrawn congressional maps.

Former President Barack Obama has also encouraged passage of the measure.

“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two years. But you can stop them, by voting ‘Yes’ by April 21,” Obama said in a video encouraging the passage of the referendum.

“Help put our elections back on an equal playing field,” Obama said.

If Virginia voters approve the amendment on April 21, it wouldn’t guarantee that the new maps would go into effect.

They still face the challenge of a lower court order ruling the redistricting to be illegal. That decision is under appeal.

A court recently ruled that the referendum could move forward—despite a standing ruling against the referendum awaiting adjudication in higher state courts.

Despite the precarious legal status of the referendum, a state court ruled the vote should go forward.

“It is the process, not the outcome, of this effort that we may ultimately have to address,” the ruling said. “Issuing an injunction to keep Virginians from the polls is not the proper way to make this decision.”

—Joseph Lord

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