A Trump-endorsed Republican who fought hard against the Biden-era border crisis and its impact on San Diego is leading the race for California’s 48th Congressional District.
San Diego County District 5 Supervisor Jim Desmond is well ahead in polls in the state’s June 2 jungle primary election.
A KGTV-TV and San Diego Union-Tribune poll conducted from May 8 to 14 shows Desmond with 29 percent of the vote—a 19-point lead—over Kevin O’Neil with 10 percent, the only other Republican candidate in the race.
Democrats Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilor backed by labor unions, and Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration staffer, are tied at 9 percent, while Brandon Riker, an investor endorsed by Congressman Ro Khanna, has 6 percent support, according to the poll.
The poll shows all other Democrats with less than 5 percent. They are Abel Chavez, Corinna Contreras, Mike Schaefer, Eric Shaw, Ferguson Porter, and Stephen Clemons.
No-party-preference candidate Luis Reyna has 1 percent support.
With only O’Neil splitting the GOP vote in the redrawn district—where just under half are estimated to have supported President Donald Trump in 2024—Desmond could advance from the primary to the Nov. 3 general election.
Republican Congressman Darrell Issa announced in March that he plans to retire at the end of his term on Jan. 2, 2027. He represented California in the House from 2001 to 2019, chose not to run in the 2018 election, and returned to office in 2021.
Issa won 59 percent of the vote in 2024 with Trump’s backing. Although Issa says he had Trump’s blessing for another term—and early polling suggested he would win the race—Issa said that “after a quarter-century in Congress—and before that, a quarter-century in business—it’s the right time for a new chapter and new challenges.”
“This decision has been on my mind for a while and I didn’t make it lightly,” he wrote in a statement posted on Instagram, in which he endorsed Desmond.
“Jim is not only a personal friend, he’s a true patriot, a Navy veteran, a successful businessman, and has a 20-year record of public service. He understands this community, was born and raised here, and will make a terrific Congressman.”
Issa decided not to run after California voters approved Proposition 50, which upended long-held red districts across the state. Prop. 50 redistricting, which favors Democratic candidates, was California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s retaliatory response to redistricting in Texas.
Boundaries were redrawn under California Proposition 50 this year, making the district more favorable for Democrats. California voters, about 64 percent, approved the redistricting plan as a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on Nov. 4, 2025, in a special election ballot.
The district has shifted away from eastern rural areas in San Diego and Riverside counties, which favored Republicans. The new boundaries include the cities of Escondido, San Marcos, and Vista in north San Diego County, as well as Palm Springs and parts of Temecula and Hemet areas of Riverside County.
The Cook Political Report initially listed the 48th Congressional District as a “toss-up” but now rates it as light blue, “Lean D.”
As of May 24, 62,227—or 13 percent—of 462,144 ballots have been returned in early voting results, according to Political Data Inc.’s tracker for the June 2 jungle primary in which the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.
Of the total returned ballots, about 42 percent were from Republicans, 37 percent from Democrats, and 21 percent from no-party-preference and other voters.
So far, Republicans have cast 25,972, or about 17 percent, of the 149,967 ballots mailed out, compared to 23,318, or about 14 percent, of the 170,424 ballots mailed out to Democrats.
About 28 percent of the early ballots were cast by voters 65 and older, compared to 13 percent by voters aged 50–64. The 35–49 group accounted for 7 percent, and the 18–34 group made up 5 percent.
