Democratic incumbent Rep. Adam Gray will face Republican Kevin Lincoln in the race to defend his congressional seat in a majority-Hispanic district in California’s agricultural heartland that he narrowly snatched from Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) in 2024 with a margin of just 187 votes.

Gray first ran in 2022 but lost the seat to Duarte by 564 votes. The congressman announced his reelection campaign in March, promising “real results” for the San Joaquin Valley and positioning himself as a moderate who can stand up to “partisan extremists” on both right and left.

The district spans five counties in California’s Central Valley region—the state’s agricultural workhorse and home to its lowest poverty threshold—including all of Merced and parts of Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera, and Fresno.

Gray and Lincoln advanced with 40.9 percent and 29.1 percent, respectively, with 55 percent reporting. The Associated Press called the race on June 3, a day after the state held its primary. In California’s “jungle primary” system, the top two winners advance to general elections in November regardless of party affiliation.

Lincoln and Gray will face off this November in a battle for the swing seat, which could tip the balance in either direction as both parties scramble for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The GOP holds a small majority with 218 seats in the chamber, including one Independent who caucuses with Republicans; Democrats have 212 seats, and there are currently five vacancies.

Lincoln, a Marine veteran, pastor, and former mayor of Stockton, campaigned on lowering taxes, cutting government waste and addressing cost-of-living issues for residents. He has also criticized Gray on immigration issues and vowed to fight what he called California’s adherence to the “woke DEI [diversity, equity, inclusion] agenda.”

He trailed in fundraising, with around $1.4 million to Gray’s $3.5 million and the $2.1 million raised by Republican challenger Vin Kruttiventi—a philanthropist and entrepreneur who positioned himself as the more “MAGA” Republican candidate and accused Lincoln of supporting DEI and posing as a “fake conservative.”

In the end, Lincoln garnered President Donald Trump’s endorsement, giving him a boost in the race.

The grandson of a Mexican immigrant, Lincoln was also the GOP choice to reach Hispanic voters, who make up around 60 percent of voting-age residents in the district, according to the 2020 census.

Gray, a businessman who grew up working on his family’s dairy supply and feed store, touts deep roots in the Central Valley and is endorsed by the California Farm Bureau and a long list of Central Valley mayors. He serves on the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committees, and as Whip of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition.

As such, he has positioned himself as a champion for agriculture and water issues impacting farmers in the region—and as a moderate player capable of navigating the era’s heightened political gridlock.

In November 2025, Gray was one of only six Democrats to break ranks with his party and vote with House Republicans to end a historic 43-day government shutdown. He justified the vote in part to stop the federal government from holding more than 47,000 hungry families “hostage,” referring to the 21 percent of families in his district that rely on SNAP food benefits.

The 13th district leans Democrat, according to the nonpartisan trackers Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report, but is still considered among the most competitive in the country.

As of April, Democrats account for around 41 percent of registered voters in the district, while Republicans make up around 27 percent. Democrats have a slight advantage following Prop. 50—Gov. Gavin Newsom’s 2025 voter-approved partisan redistricting plan, which gave the party a boost of a few points.

But the 13th District is still considered one of the most competitive going into November, with around 30 percent of voters registered as “non-party preference,” independent, or otherwise affiliated.

Former President Joe Biden comfortably carried the district in 2020. In 2024, Trump won four out of five counties in the district; former Vice President Kamala Harris won in San Joaquin by around 400 votes, and in Stanislaus County, Trump’s margin of victory was only 341 votes.

While accounting for 27.5 percent of registered voters, Republicans made up 38.5 percent of returned ballots in the run up to Tuesday’s primary, for a 17 percent turnout, according to the nonpartisan tracker Civiq. Democrats, who make up 41.6 percent of registered voters, accounted for 43.6 percent of early ballots, around a 12 percent turnout rate. Meanwhile, non-party-preference voters, who make up 30 percent of registered voters, accounted for 17 percent of returns, a 7 percent turnout rate.