WASHINGTON—The eyes of America are upon Texas ahead of next month’s Senate primaries.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is grappling with serious challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas).

On the Democratic side, Texas state Rep. James Talarico is battling Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). Crockett entered the fray in December, soon after another progressive candidate, former Rep. Colin Allred, dropped out to challenge Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) in the Texas 33rd primary. Allred previously lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2024.

Election day in Texas is March 3, with early voting starting Feb. 17.

A runoff will ensue on May 26 in any race where no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote plus one vote. That’s expected among Republicans; Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt all have meaningful support.

Big money and fierce attacks have defined the contests, which come amid redistricting that is remaking power in the state.

The winners will square off in midterms that could shape the second half of the second Trump presidency.

Here’s what you need to know.

Cornyn, Paxton, Hunt

First elected in 2002, Cornyn has generally remained an ally of President Donald Trump, opposing the 2019 and 2021 impeachments and endorsing him in early 2024 after he won the New Hampshire primary.

Both Paxton and Hunt have sought to marshal conservative dissatisfaction with the incumbent. Hunt, first elected in 2022, has questioned Cornyn’s long stay in Washington. Paxton has drawn attention to Cornyn’s past comments criticizing the construction of a border wall. The attorney general also rescinded a 2001 opinion from Cornyn, issued when he was the state’s attorney general, saying that it raised the risks of illegal immigrants obtaining occupational licenses without Social Security numbers.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) speaks as Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on the third day of her Supreme Court confirmation hearing in Washington on Oct. 14, 2020. (Susan Walsh-Pool/Getty Images)Cornyn has defended his record, touting an endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council. A verified Team Cornyn X account associated with the campaign described the senator as “the only electable Republican in this primary.”

On Feb. 9, Paxton secured his own key endorsement: Turning Point Action, the political organizing wing of Trump-aligned Turning Point USA.

The three Republicans are vying for the most coveted endorsement of them all, at least among Republicans—the thumbs-up from Trump.

Earlier in the month, the president told reporters he was taking “a very serious look” at the possibility of backing a candidate, adding, “I like all of them, all three.”

On Feb. 3, Hunt said backing from Trump would be “incredibly important.”

Federal elections data show Cornyn’s campaign in the lead among Republicans, with over $10 million in receipts at the end of 2025. Paxton had raised more than $5 million and Hunt over $1.8 million by that same time, with $3.5 million in disbursements from Hunt exceeding what he had taken in.

An analysis of advertising spending from AdImpact shows $52.6 million in support of Cornyn as of Feb. 6. That dwarfs $9.7 million for Hunt, $3.6 million against Cornyn, $2 million against Hunt, and less than $1 million for Paxton by that same date.

Cornyn, who formerly chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has received significant contributions from the NRSC and various political action committees.

So far, voters have not had a chance to see the Republican candidates debate one another.

Hunt told The Epoch Times on Feb. 3 that he has reached out to Cornyn four times in hopes of having one but has repeatedly been turned down.

Cornyn has ruled out participating in a debate until the runoffs.

Polls reviewed by The Epoch Times show Cornyn and Paxton competing for first and second place.

Recent polling, including surveys from the University of Houston and Emerson College, shows Paxton easing into first place.

Crockett, Talarico, Allred

The Lone Star State has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. In 2024, Trump won the state by almost 14 percent—a Texas-sized win for the GOP. That same year, Cruz beat Allred by over 8 percent.

Yet, other factors, such as Cruz’s relatively narrow victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and what could be disaffection with Republicans in 2026, have raised hopes among Democrats.

A Senate upset would likely stand in stark contrast to outcomes in the House. The state’s new congressional map, upheld by the Supreme Court, comes at the expense of Texas Democrats, including Crockett.

The congresswoman’s entry into the race enabled her to sidestep a crowded Democratic primary in a new district, Texas’s 33rd—the same district where former Senate hopeful Allred is now challenging Johnson.

Allred, a former professional football player, stirred debate in early February in a video posted on X, in which he accused Talarico of describing him as a “mediocre black man” to Crockett. Talarico called that “a mischaracterization of a private conversation” in a statement on the video.

Allred has since continued to criticize Talarico, saying the state lawmaker did not apologize to him when they spoke on the phone after the alleged remarks were made public.

Also in February, a political action committee linked to Talarico, Lone Star Rising PAC, launched an attack ad targeting Crockett.

Talarico has benefited from significant media exposure, gaining attention through a TikTok account that has attracted 1.5 million followers.

In July, months before he formally launched his Senate campaign, Talarico appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience.

According to federal elections data, Talarico raised over $13 million as of the end of 2025. Crockett, who entered the race in early December, had more than $6.5 million by that time.

AdImpact identified $10.2 million in advertising spending for Talarico and just $600,000 for Crockett by Feb. 6.

The Democrats squared off in a debate hosted by the AFL-CIO on Jan. 24. Talarico, like Cornyn on the Republican side, has relied in part on the perception of electability. On social media, he shared an endorsement from the Houston Chronicle that argued he could help sway moderate voters.

While the January Emerson poll showed Talarico besting Crockett in the primary, several others, including the new University of Houston survey, show the congresswoman defeating Talarico.

Hypothetical Matchups

For all the attention on Texas, the GOP may not have much to fear.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Cornyn’s seat “likely Republican,” assessing that it has a lower chance of being flipped than the seats held by Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Jon Husted (R-Ohio), and Susan Collins (R-Maine) as well as the one being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Even so, strong Democratic performances in some 2025 elections and dipping approval ratings for Trump could make for a more competitive landscape by November.

Texas’s fate may hinge on who faces whom in the general election.

Some recent polls reflect a tighter prospective race between Talarico and Paxton than between Talarico and Cornyn. The January Emerson survey has Talarico and Paxton neck and neck in a hypothetical matchup.

Crockett and Paxton would also be evenly matched according to that same survey.

Yet most polls reviewed by The Epoch Times show the top three Republican candidates besting their hypothetical Democratic opponents in November.

The new University of Houston survey has Paxton beating Talarico by 2 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Cornyn, according to the survey, would defeat Talarico too, but by a narrower margin.