Online platforms such as Polymarket let users wager on an expanding array of topics, giving military and geopolitics enthusiasts a chance to test their knowledge. But the prospect of winning big may tempt people with access to secretive information to divulge details of sensitive military operations.
The online prediction markets and betting platforms facilitate wagers on a range of topics, from sporting events to geopolitical developments. They have even let users wager on the timing of U.S. military actions overseas.
Potential insiders looking to win big on bets about forthcoming military operations may hide their identities behind anonymous screen names, but their wagers are still publicly visible. Particularly bold wagers about military actions could alert their intended targets and compromise the operations.
Earlier this year, U.S. federal prosecutors raised such concerns as they brought a criminal indictment against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army special operations soldier. Prosecutors asserted Van Dyke was involved in planning the Jan. 3 raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, had access to classified information on the mission, and used his inside knowledge to make numerous Polymarket wagers on the matter to ultimately net $400,000.
Van Dyke has been charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. He has pleaded not guilty.
A more recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) raised the possibility that insider trading on military operations is even more prevalent.
The Aug. 20 report identified 556 Polymarket accounts that the organization believes show signs of insider trading. As the organization analyzed Polymarket betting patterns, it found that these accounts, which it termed “Orcas,” placed longshot wagers on a narrow range of topics, with incredible success rates compared to the average platform user.
Of these 556 Orca accounts, 152 were identified as specializing in wagers on military operations and foreign policy developments.
The organization found that around half of these 152 suspicious military-oriented accounts placed wagers on Polymarket within two days of being created. These 152 accounts wagered $2 million on longshot predictions, achieved a 97.2 percent win rate, and earned $8 million in profit.
Betting has long centered on sporting events. Online prediction markets such as Polymarket now represent an emerging and increasingly popular venue for niche enthusiasts and new insiders.
“Polymarket offers such diversity of these problematic military and political markets that information advantages can be used in a variety of ways, including by betting on the direct consequences of a military action,” ACDC Co-Director Michael Hornsby said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.
In the months before the raid to capture Maduro, the U.S. military amassed an armada of warships and strike aircraft and began bombing vessels accused of facilitating narcotics trafficking at the Venezuelan leader’s behest. President Donald Trump continued to ramp up diplomatic pressure on Caracas and raised the prospect of military action for weeks leading up to the special operations raid.
By the fall of 2025, as media attention on Venezuela mounted, Polymarket began facilitating wagers on when Maduro would be out of power and when U.S. forces would enter the country.
The ACDC did not share its full data set for military-related longshot bets. The Epoch Times identified multiple Polymarket accounts that placed timely, successful wagers on Maduro’s capture and removal from power.
Of the Polymarket accounts that bet on the timing of Maduro’s departure from power, the five top-performing accounts placed wagers within two days of the Jan. 3 special operations raid and have no other history on the platform.
Polymarket offers no direct way of contacting users through the platform.
The charging documents in Van Dyke’s case have not identified his alleged Polymarket accounts by name. The Department of Justice declined to volunteer that information when reached for comment, and Van Dyke’s attorneys did not respond to requests for comment.
After a U.S. fighter jet was shot down over Iran on April 3, leaving two U.S. airmen stranded behind enemy lines, predictions began to emerge on Polymarket about when the U.S. military would retrieve the airmen. The wagers prompted backlash, including from Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), and Polymarket subsequently shut down trades on the rescue operation.
“We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards,” Polymarket said. “It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”
While media reports have credited the Army’s Delta Force with effecting Maduro’s capture, the military remains aloof on all references to the special mission unit. Likewise, those within Delta Force and other so-called tier one military units are expected to adopt an ethos of silent professionalism.
“Anybody who works at that level ... enter those units with an understanding that most if not everything they do will probably never be made public,” retired Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer, a former intelligence officer, told The Epoch Times. “And their involvement in that activity is supposed to be as secret as the activity itself.”
When asked about Van Dyke’s arrest in April, Trump likened the case to that of professional baseball player Pete Rose, who has been barred from potential Hall of Fame status for betting on games in which he either played or coached. Proponents of placing Rose among baseball’s greats, including Trump, have argued Rose only ever bet on himself and his team to win and was not trying to make a buck through self-sabotage.
“Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team,” Trump told media at the White House.
During an April 24 episode of the Tier1 Podcast, self-identified Delta Force veteran and podcast host Brent Tucker also noted the comparison between Rose’s baseball betting controversy and the criminal allegations against Van Dyke. Still, Tucker opposed the alleged conduct.
“You have to be better than that. You’re part of an elite organization at a high level,” he said during the podcast episode.
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