Online retailers may have another reason to rejoice this holiday season, as global computer software giant Adobe has predicted record online sales for the period covering Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.

In its Oct. 6 report, Adobe predicted that online sales would climb to $253.4 billion. This would be a 5.3 percent year-over-year increase, although less than the 8.7 percent rise during the same period in 2024.

Cyber Monday, Dec. 1, will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and is expected to garner about $14.2 billion in sales, representing a 6.3 percent year-over-year increase, according to the firm.

Cyber Week—Nov. 27 to Dec. 1, the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday—could account for 17.2 percent of overall spending this season, at $43.7 billion, up by 6.3 percent year-over-year.

Black Friday, traditionally the start of the holiday shopping season, is expected to experience more sales this year, advancing by 8.3 percent year over year to $11.7 billion. Even Thanksgiving, the day generally spent with family or friends, is expected to bring in $6.4 billion in online sales, again representing a year-over-year increase of 4.9 percent.

Adobe also suggested that mobile devices will replace laptops and desktop computers as the main shopping platform this season, with a predicted 56.1 percent share of online spending. This could translate to more than $142.7 billion, an increase of 8.5 percent year-over-year.

“The shift towards mobile shopping has greatly accelerated in recent years,” the report reads. “During the 2020 holiday season, mobile accounted for just 40 percent of online spend.”

What Are Consumers Buying?

Electronics, apparel, and home goods will be the top three selling categories this season. The report predicts that electronics alone will bring in $57.5 billion in sales, followed by apparel at $47.6 billion and furniture at $31.1 billion. Sales in all three areas are expected to see year-over-year increases of more than 4 percent.

Smartphones, cameras, and other small electronic devices will lead the pack, with proposed hot sellers including the iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Samsung Galaxy S25, Kindle Colorsoft, and DJI Osmo Pocket 3.

Online sales for power tools and home security products could escalate by more than 1,000 percent, while sales of televisions, refrigerators, and smart home appliances may see increases of 600 percent to more than 900 percent. Other popular goods expected to dominate the cybermarket this season include smartwatches, bio-monitors, video games, and accessories.

Adobe noted that hot sellers are expected to include gaming consoles such as the Nintendo Switch 2, the Sony PlayStation 5, and the Xbox Series X, along with games such as Donkey Kong Bananza, Elden Ring Nightreign, and Call of Duty: Black Ops 7.

For younger children, top selling toys may include Disney Stitch Puppetronics, Labubu dolls, MrBeast Lab toys, Fisher-Price Little People, Lego sets, and Mini Brands capsules.

Deferred Payments and Discounts

Consumers will also have more options to delay payments, with Buy Now Pay Later predicted to result in $20.2 billion in online spending—$2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season. Cyber Monday alone is expected to drive more than $1 billion in Buy Now Pay Later options.

Adobe stated consumers can also expect to save more this year with significant discounts of up to 28 percent off listed prices. Electronics and toys could offer some of the biggest discounts, with Cyber Week and Cyber Monday often serving as the “last call” for the “best deals.”

“Consumers are not simply looking for the lowest price this season,” the report reads. “Competitive discounts will drive shoppers to ‘trade up’ to higher-ticket items in certain categories—allowing individuals to get more value out of their dollar.”

Adobe also predicts that artificial intelligence chat services will rise by 520 percent year-over-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.

Adobe Analytics looked at more than 1 trillion e-commerce transactions to U.S. retail stores to create its report. Founded in 1982, Adobe is headquartered in San Jose, California, and employs more than 26,000 people worldwide.