With Texas primaries coming to a close on March 3, South Texas congressional seats long held by Democrats will likely face serious challenges from Republicans in redrawn districts.

Texas redrew congressional maps, including reliably Democratic congressional districts 28 and 34, in hopes of bolstering Republican chances of maintaining control of Congress.

Those districts now reflect boundaries that would have favored President Donald Trump in 2024, according to The Cook Political Report.

Despite that, the report shows that Texas’s 28th Congressional District went from a tossup to leaning blue.

Democratic incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar is expected to have a slight advantage over his Republican challenger. Cuellar, considered a moderate Democrat, has held the seat for more than 20 years and is one of a handful of Democrats willing to cross party lines to vote with Republicans.

He is favored to win his primary and face Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, also favored to win the Republican primary in the district, which is almost 90 percent Hispanic.

Congressional District 34 went from leaning red to a tossup, according to the Cook report. Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, also considered a moderate, is expected to face the winner of a crowded Republican field of 10 candidates.

The 34th District is about 74 percent Hispanic and extends into the Corpus Christi area to rope in more conservative voters, according to the Cook report.

Front-runners on the Republican side include Mayra Flores, who temporarily won the seat in a 2022 special election, and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores, who has gained the support of  Trump and other party leaders.

In June 2022, Mayra Flores made headlines with a win during a special election in District 34. Republicans pointed to her success as a sign of Trump’s growing strength among Hispanic voters.

But after losing the general elections to Gonzalez in 2022 and 2024, support for her shifted toward a fresh start with a new candidate.

Republicans Court Hispanics

“Both seats are definitely challenging and determinant upon how Hispanic voters turn out,” he said.

The question is whether Hispanic voters will continue moving to the Republican side of the ledger, a trend that started two election cycles ago, he said.

“But I think Republicans have a better chance at beating Vicente Gonzalez than they do Henry Cuellar. Henry is long-tested and well-known, and he’s always going to be tough to beat.”

While District 28 was redrawn, it actually included more of Cuellar’s base supporters, according to the Cook report.

Cuellar is also likely to take advantage of Trump’s recent pardon to win over Republicans, Burton said. In December, Trump pardoned Cuellar and his wife, both facing a federal indictment on bribery charges.

In a Truth Social post in December 2025, Trump accused the Biden administration of going after Cuellar and his wife, Imelda, because of the congressman’s criticism of its policies at the southern border.

However, when Cuellar announced he would run for reelection as a Democrat, Trump criticized the congressman for working with “radical left” people who wanted to put him in prison.

Republicans began focusing on South Texas after several traditionally Democratic counties voted for Trump in 2020.

In the 2024 presidential election, Trump scored historic gains in this heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, with counties such as Starr and Webb going red for the first time in more than a century.

Burton said it remains to be seen if Trump’s popularity among Latino voters helps Republicans in the midterms, but noted Republicans have been doing a lot of groundwork in South Texas.

“There’s a good chance that Republicans will be able to turn out a large number of Hispanic voters on their side,” he said.

Other factors that could determine the outcome of the midterm elections are turnout and voter motivation.

Primary voting on the Democratic side has outpaced Republican turnout, but people shouldn’t read too much into that, Burton said.

“In the long run, it depends on the economy, it depends on voters’ feelings as to what the general election looks like,” he said.

Army veteran Felix Cano speaks during a rally in McAllen, Texas, on Nov. 9, 2024. (Bobby Sanchez/The Epoch Times)

The Trump Factor

Cano, a Hidalgo County resident, said he’s worried that Trump supporters won’t turn out to vote for Republicans in the midterm.

“This is a hard question,” he said. “I think things have kind of died down—the enthusiasm.”

That’s because prices at the grocery store remain high on a number of staples, such as meat, he said.

“That’s why I think there’s going to be an issue,” he said. “It’s not changing my mind about who I’m gonna vote for, but for a lot of people, it is.”

While he’s not seeing much enthusiasm on the Democratic side either, he noted that South Texas has traditionally voted Democratic.

Luis Cabrera, a South Texas pastor and Latino Faith Director for Citizens Defending Freedom, said the political landscape for Republicans in South Texas is mixed.

While conservative Hispanics think Trump has done a stellar job in shutting down the border and illegal immigration, some have soured on voting Republican because of how they view U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

“You’re talking about the ICE raids and that impacting the way people feel about Republicans, like a negative sentiment,” he said.

They don’t like the idea of illegal immigrants without criminal records getting caught up in immigration raids, he said.

Cabrera said he can see both sides of the issue. He and his family immigrated to the United States legally, so it’s not fair for others to jump the line and come in unlawfully.

“I understand why you came to this country, so you can provide for your family. But come legally. It kind of defeats the purpose when you are breaking the law.”