Commentary

With an incoming administration that will be installed on Jan. 20, 2025, will there be shifts in U.S. foreign policy for the next four years that could affect the security of California and the other states?

It’s likely that some of the positions in the Biden administration will be maintained, but President-elect Donald Trump’s stamp on future policies could reflect stances taken during his first term. How will Trump, 47th president, compare with Trump, 45th president?

Trump, similar to Teddy Roosevelt, will likely often speak softly and carry a big stick. He will get along with our adversaries to gain leverage but will also inform authoritarian leaders in no uncertain terms that aggressions against the United States and its global partners will not stand.

During Trump’s first term, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia were limited to routine saber-rattling on the world stage. However, during President Joe Biden’s tenure, China’s bullying became more overt, Iran greenlighted the invasion of Israel, Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time, and North Korea launched more test missiles than ever and sent troops to Ukraine. These brazen activities will be difficult to halt, but Trump has indicated that he will strive to mitigate them.

First, Trump will enhance border security to a much greater degree than the prior administration. He might have to cut off funding to sanctuary cities and states that oppose his deportation plan for criminals. In addition, it shouldn’t take the threat of tariffs against Canada and Mexico for those two nations to carry out the legwork to secure their sides of the border with the United States.

Trump will also likely persuade Panama to shutter the Darien Gap, a lawless migration hub. The Department of Homeland Security also urgently needs more Border Patrol agents, and the border wall with Mexico must be completed to maintain an orderly immigration process. Moreover, additional immigration judges will be required to expedite the process of immigration for genuine asylum cases and legal immigration cases.

Border security is a critical part of the overall national security strategy in order to vet immigrants and prevent criminal gangs and terrorists from entering the country. Many of these criminals are involved in arms, drugs, and human trafficking that are devastating to vulnerable minors, while our social services are stretched to the breaking point.

Unlawful immigrants who seek to game the system and take advantage of tax-funded social services should be turned back at the border. If an immigrant breaks the law initially by entering the country illegally, what is to stop them from circumventing other laws in an attempt to take shortcuts to permanent residency?

Next, Trump will continue to support Israel and Ukraine in their fight against tyranny to a certain extent, but he will also work to bring the hostile parties together to negotiate for cease-fires or a cessation of conflict. Moscow promised Kyiv in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that if Ukraine’s nuclear weapons were turned over to Russia, there would be no invasion. Ukraine complied, but Russian President Vladimir Putin broke the pact and invaded twice. That is why any treaties with Russia must be assessed with a trust-but-verify posture.

Trump will likely sign off on greater sanctions against Iranian and Russian assets in order to wind down the wars and curtail the flow of weapons to nefarious actors within reach of the combat zones. He will concur with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas must never again govern in the Gaza Strip. Trump might also apply leverage to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to persuade him to withdraw his troops from the Russian battle space adjacent to Ukraine.

Third, U.S. national security could be enhanced if Trump shores up our freedom-loving global partners and also reaches out to developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This cultural and commercial outreach can provide a counterweight to China’s malign activities in those continents. The European Union could also contribute to Europe’s security and stability abroad.

Fourth, Trump will likely adopt a foreign policy that uses both the carrot and stick of diplomacy and military power. Building a strong military force can actually mitigate the need to apply armed power, as it projects peace through strength, according to President Ronald Reagan. It is highly critical that our armed forces stay ahead of the curve vis-à-vis our adversaries in the spheres of training and weapons platforms.

Fifth, hopefully, Trump will allow Congress to appropriate adequate resources to the armed forces in order to maintain capability, capacity, and readiness to deter China’s potential blockade or invasion of Taiwan. It would take an entire book to catalog the atrocities carried out by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on a daily basis as it conducts unrestricted warfare against its own people and the West. Trump ought to approach the CCP and its predatory practices from the perspective of cold, hard reality.

Any trade with China should involve reciprocity, and if China doubles down on trade barriers, tariffs can be imposed. If Beijing wants to enter foreign markets, buy land, and set up shop, then it should allow Western companies to do the same in China. Moreover, the United States ought to decouple from any Chinese goods or services that adversely affect national security.

Finally, Trump will pursue an America First agenda in foreign policy by using both arm-twisting and horse-trading. He will place the interests of the United States above the demands of other nations in order to advance free markets, liberty, peace, and an accepted rules-based order.