The Chinese communist regime would suffer “massive” losses in a failed conflict over Taiwan, including the deaths of about 100,000 personnel, a Washington-based think tank warned in a report published on Jan. 5.

The German Marshall Fund’s report, titled “If China Attacks Taiwan,” examines the repercussions for China under two scenarios—a “minor conflict” and a “major war”—occurring sometime between 2026 and 2030.

The Chinese regime views Taiwan as a part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to seize the self-governing island. U.S. officials have warned of a possible timeline of the regime attacking Taiwan by 2027.

Under the major war scenario, China would invade Taiwan with amphibious forces, accompanied by initial missile strikes against Taiwan’s military and U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. The invading Chinese forces would land on Taiwan but struggle to maintain their combat operations, as Taiwanese and American forces would carry out sustained strikes on Chinese ships and aircraft attempting to ferry supplies and reinforcements across the Taiwan Strait.

After “several months of heavy fighting,” the Chinese military would retreat from Taiwan but maintain control of the Taiwanese offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu, the authors stated.

China would sustain an estimated 100,000 casualties during the invasion. Meanwhile, Taiwan would suffer about 50,000 military casualties and an equal number of civilian deaths, the United States would incur 5,000 military and 1,000 civilian casualties, and Japan would lose 1,000 military personnel and 500 civilians, according to the report.

Beijing’s propaganda apparatus would try to portray the result of such a war as a “victory,” likely framing it as “teaching Taiwan a lesson,” given the Chinese forces’ ability to seize the two Taiwanese offshore islands, the report said.

However, the report added that the scale of the military loss would be “too large to conceal” from the public, and it would hurt the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

“Military personnel were not convinced that the outcome was anything other than a national humiliation,” the authors wrote, adding that the CCP authorities would attempt to deflect responsibility by “purging” PLA commanders deemed “incompetent” or “disloyal.”

“The scenario ended with the Party facing military backing for a rival civilian leader or even a coup designed to restore national pride,” the report reads.

The economic consequence would be “massive” and “catastrophic,” the authors said, as the major war would bring “near-total embargoes on trade with China.”

“A threat to global demand for China’s exports is now far more salient to the underlying health of its economy than five years ago because domestic demand has weakened so sharply,” the report reads, pointing to China’s property market woes and the subsequent end of its “unprecedented credit and investment bubble.”

The United States would impose sanctions on China, likely targeting the Chinese central bank, and the moves would result in a “weakening of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar,” the authors said. This depreciation would erode Beijing’s ability to import energy and other raw materials.

“Hong Kong would likely cease to be a global financial center once sanctions and embargoes on Chinese trade were imposed since Beijing would be incentivized to prevent capital flight via the city,” the report reads.

In terms of international standing, the major war scenario could put Chinese authorities on a “defensive” position diplomatically, the authors stated, but the CCP’s longstanding narrative about its “inevitable rise would be proven wrong.”

“The United States and its allies would likely recall their ambassadors, expel Chinese embassy staff, and withdraw from conferences and other dialogues in China and with Chinese counterparts,” the report reads. “Some countries might withdraw from Belt and Road Initiative projects or downgrade cooperation with BRICS.”

BRICS—an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—is an economic bloc comprising 11 countries and regarded by the CCP as a counter to a Western-led international order.

China might enter into a conflict with Taiwan due to miscalculation. According to the report, Chinese officials “might overestimate PLA capabilities” before the start of a conflict.

“Given the scope and scale of [Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s] recent army purges, it would be understandable if the PLA’s capabilities have been undermined. Still, senior military officers may be unwilling to disappoint political leaders and allow them to proceed on the incorrect expectation that victory in a conflict is all but assured,” the report reads.

In October, the CCP expelled nine senior military officials over alleged corruption and abuse of power. Among them was He Weidong, once China’s second-most-senior uniformed officer as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.