As the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, American voters next month will select the first candidates of the election cycle in partisan state-level elections.

Technically, some voting is already underway: Early voting in North Carolina began last week, with the first ballots of the 2026 midterms being cast on Feb. 12.

Republicans this year will be on the defensive, seeking to hold the gains made by the party in 2024 as rising warning signs point to a decline in voters’ confidence in President Donald Trump and the GOP.

In Texas and North Carolina, voters will select nominees in two of the 2026 cycle’s most important battleground states, while Democratic voters in Illinois will also select a nominee who’s heavily favored to win the race to replace the outgoing incumbent Democrat.

Here are the primary races to watch in March.

Texas Senate Republican Primary

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has launched a bid to unseat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), setting up a high-profile Republican primary contest.

Paxton entered the race earlier this year, carrying lingering fallout from past controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and subsequent acquittal by the Texas Senate. He currently holds a narrow edge in RealClearPolitics polling averages.

Framing the contest in ideological terms, Paxton has cast the race as a showdown between his brand of populist “America First” conservatism and what he describes as establishment politics embodied by Cornyn.

Cornyn, meanwhile, has characterized the primary as a referendum on character, pointing to Paxton’s impeachment proceedings and other legal issues.

Political analysts and betting markets largely view Paxton and Cornyn as the leading contenders. However, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) has also entered the race, creating a three-way primary that could advance to a runoff if no candidate secures a majority.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s principal campaign and fundraising arm, is backing Cornyn. Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate but has indicated he is weighing whether to get involved in the race.

Texas Senate Democratic Primary

Given the favorable national political environment, Democrats hope for a long-shot win in the Lone Star State’s Senate election this year.

Initially, Texas state Rep. James Talarico led the pack of potential Democratic nominees, though polls show his support declining after Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) entered the race last year.

Talarico rose to prominence during the redistricting battle this summer as Texas Republicans voted to add five Republican districts to the state’s congressional map.

His main rival for the nomination is Crockett, whose Oct. 8 entry into the race prompted former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) to end his bid for the nomination.

Crockett has become well-known for her heated questions during hearings on Capitol Hill.

According to recent polling, Crockett leads Talarico by up to eight points.

In hypothetical polling match-ups, surveys have consistently found that Talarico would be advantaged in a race against Paxton, but is disfavored if Republicans select Cornyn as their nominee.

Meanwhile, polling has shown Crockett at a disadvantage against either of the major Republican candidates.

The primary race will be held on March 3, and any runoff races are scheduled for May 26.

Illinois Senate Democratic Primary

In Illinois, several prominent Democrats are competing for the nomination to replace outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.).

Durbin—who had once been seen as a rival to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to lead the party in the upper chamber—announced his retirement last year, saying it was “time to pass the torch.”

Since his announcement, several Democrats have announced their intention to run for the seat in a crowded primary, though some favorites have emerged.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), who has served in the U.S. House since 2017, leads in fundraising and is largely seen as the frontrunner for the nomination.

Polls indicate that the runner up to Krishnamoorthi at present is Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has won the endorsement of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.).

Krishnamoorthi leads in the matchup, with polls showing a consistent double-digit lead for the candidate since Nov. 2025.

Also running for the nomination in a distant third is Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.).

The race is scheduled for March 17, with the winner in the Democratic primary considered highly favored to win the general election for the seat in November.

North Carolina 1st District Republican Primary

In North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is running for reelection in a district that was redrawn through redistricting.

Davis secured a second term in 2024 by less than 2 percentage points, placing him among 13 House Democrats elected in districts that were also won by Donald Trump that year, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Davis has sharply criticized the revised district boundaries, describing the new map as “beyond the pale.”

He faces no opposition in the Democratic primary, while five Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination.

Among them is Army veteran and former Trump administration official Laurie Buckhout, who is seeking a rematch after narrowly losing to Davis in 2024.

State Sen. Bobby Hanig, former sheriff Asa Buck, and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse are other political notables in the district seeking the nomination.

Rounding out the GOP field is attorney and small-business owner Ashley-Nicole Russell.

North Carolina 11th District Democratic Primary

In North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, five Democrats are competing in the primary for the opportunity to take on incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.).

Although Edwards won reelection comfortably in 2024, Democrats are aiming to flip the seat in the upcoming election.

The Democratic field includes farmer Jamie Ager, educator and advocate Zelda Briarwood, physician Richard Hudspeth, cancer researcher and professor Paul Maddox, and civil engineer Lee Whipple.

Ager is centering his campaign on recovery efforts following Hurricane Helene, lowering everyday costs, expanding access to affordable health care, advancing immigration reform, and strengthening public safety. An internal Democratic poll shared with Newsweek shows Ager leading Edwards by 1 percentage point.

Briarwood is advocating for increased investment in rural health care, expanding Medicaid, limiting private equity ownership of residential housing, and making community college tuition-free.

Hudspeth’s campaign priorities include rebuilding communities impacted by Hurricane Helene, reducing health care costs, and supporting military veterans.

Maddox has not released a detailed policy platform, but his campaign says he would focus on lowering costs, broadening access to affordable health care, and ensuring government is more responsive to constituents.

Whipple, meanwhile, is also emphasizing hurricane recovery as a central issue in his campaign.