New polling of more than 8,400 Australian voters reveals the conservative-leaning One Nation could threaten to take 46-55 of the 128 federal lower house seats if an election were held now.

Under the new modelling, Labor still holds the majority with 77-86 seats, but One Nation leads the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition in all its seats, while making inroads into suburban seats that surround Australia’s major cities—electorates that swung to Labor at the last election.

A potential election today could see centre-right Liberal Party retain just 9-15 seats and the Nationals lose everything.

The last modelling conducted by Demos AU/Capital Brief in late 2025 showed One Nation taking around 15 federal seats, highlighting the significant jump in support the Pauline Hanson-led party continues to attract. The next election is due in 2028.

This poll surveyed 8,484 respondents between Jan. 13 and March 3 this year.

Which Seats Face the One Nation Challenge?

The poll found One Nation “firmly in front” in a swathe of Queensland seats—a traditional stronghold of the Liberals and Nationals—while threatening other regional electorates.

Maranoa has been a safe Nationals seat since 1943, interrupted by a short stint where MP Charles Russell became an independent from 1950-51. While Parkes in NSW has been overwhelmingly held by the Nationals since its creation in 1984.

• New South Wales (NSW): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, Parkes


• Victoria (Vic): Indi, Mallee, Monash, Nicholls, Wannon, Gippsland


• Queensland (Qld): Capricornia, Dawson, Fadden, Fairfax, Flynn, Groom, Hinkler, Maranoa, Wide Bay, and Wright


• Western Australia (WA): Canning, Forrest,


• South Australia (SA): Grey

In terms of seats that “are leaning” towards One Nation, Queensland once-again looks like ground zero for the biggest shift, but several Liberal Party mainstays look under threat including former Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s Farrer, and current leader Angus Taylor’s Hume.

Recent Labor acquisition Leichhardt will also face a tough fight, as well as stable seats like Hunter, which Labor has held since 1910.

Bob Katter’s Kennedy, which he has held since 1993, will also face pressure.

• New South Wales: Farrer, Gilmore, Hume, Hunter, Page, Riverina


• Victoria: Bendigo, Casey, Flinders, La Trobe


• Queensland: Bowman, Fisher, Forde, Kennedy, Leichhardt, Longman, McPherson, Moncrieff


• Western Australia: Bullwinkel, Durack, O'Connor


• South Australia: Barker, Mayo


• Tasmania: Braddon


• Northern Territory: Solomon

Marginal seats “too close to call” but where One Nation is leading include:

• New South Wales: Lindsay, New England


• Victoria: Hawke


• Queensland: Blair

Marginal seats “where One Nation is behind” but could still win include:

• New South Wales: Paterson, Eden-Monaro


• Queensland: Herbert, Petrie


• Tasmania: Bass


• Northern Territory: Lingiari

DemosAU Director of Research George Hasanakos said One Nation was leading in, or threatening nearly all Coalition seats in the country.

“Based on this model, One Nation would become the major opposition party, capturing all of the National Party’s electorates and most of those held by the Liberals,” he said in a statement.

“We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, places which have many new residents priced out of housing elsewhere.

“Labor is dominant in the inner to middle rings of capital cities but would have a fight on their hands in those urban fringes and in regional seats on these numbers.”

Hasanakos expects the Coalition to work hard on appealing to the right and suburban voters to try fend off One Nation.

One Nation’s support will be tested at the South Australia state election on March 21, and upcoming Farrer by-election, where it has also polled strongly.