As Japan increases its regional leadership in combating geopolitical tensions with China, the next Japanese prime minister will decide the country’s future direction, including its China policy.

Current front runners include 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, former minister of environment and the son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, and 67-year-old former Minister of Defence Shigeru Ishiba. The election on Sept. 27 will determine the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the next prime minister of Japan.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision not to seek reelection followed corruption scandals that saw support for the LDP drop below 20 percent. The scandal involving unreported political funds has led to the indictment of 10 lawmakers and aides.

Kishida assumed his position as the prime minister in October 2021. While he is widely seen as a successor to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies, the next leader may have an opportunity to chart his own course.

Kishida Administration’s Policy on China

Akio Yaita, director of the Taipei branch of the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun, said that Kishida largely followed the legacy of Abe, who pushed for more active defense and assertive foreign policy in the face of China’s expanding geopolitical influence.

“Whether Abe’s path will continue has become the focus [of the next leadership election],” Yaita told The Epoch Times.

Earlier this year, Kishida visited several European and Latin American countries to strengthen regional partnerships amid China’s expanding influence. His diplomacy emphasized upholding a free and open international order based on the rule of law.

Tsukasa Shibuya, a researcher at the Institute of World Studies at Takushoku University in Japan, told The Epoch Times that although Kishida took a firm stance against the Chinese regime, which is in line with the positions of G7 countries, it is still difficult to predict whether the next leader will continue such policies.

In recent months, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has escalated its aggression toward neighboring countries, prompting condemnation from the United States and its allies.

On Aug. 26, a Chinese military plane violated Japanese airspace for the first time in history, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense, amid the regime’s ramping up of military drills and aggression against its neighbors, including the Philippines and Taiwan.

As a key partner in the region for the United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan, Japan has been actively opposing the CCP’s aggression. This year, Japan boosted its defense cooperation with the United States and the Philippines to counter China.

“It’s a part of the island chain that we militarily kept referencing,” Simon O’Connor, a former chair of the Parliamentary Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defense and Trade in New Zealand, told The Epoch Times, referring to Japan. “It is a key area for American military operations as well.”

“In other words, if things went south in the Taiwan Strait, Japan would be a critical geographic location. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen, but that’s why Japan is quite important.”

LDP Candidates’ Stance on China

Sankei Shimbun’s survey among LDP members on Aug. 24–25 showed that Koizumi currently leads the poll at 29.4 percent, with Ishiba closely behind at 23 percent.

Ishiba visited Taiwan with a bipartisan group of Japanese lawmakers right after Kishida announced on Aug. 14 that he was stepping down. Ishiba reaffirmed his commitment to foster closer relations with Taiwan, as well as the larger democratic community, to prevent East Asia from becoming “the Ukraine of tomorrow.”

The Sankei Shimbun poll shows that Koizumi commands a significant lead among young people, while Ishiba remains popular among the senior population. During a plenary session at the Japanese House of Representatives last year, Koizumi said China had evolved from “one-party rule” to “one-man rule” under Xi Jinping.

Shibuya said that the 43-year-old Koizumi’s exact position on China issues remains unclear. However, Yaita believes that Japan’s general trend of confronting the CCP will not change regardless of the winner of the leadership election. Still, Japan’s stance’s strength may differ among the candidates.

After World War II, Japanese politics have been dominated by the conservative LDP, with very few transitions of power to other political parties. Currently, the LDP seeks to fix the government’s low approval rating through its leadership shuffle, which it has done on many occasions.

Strategic Ambiguity in Protecting Taiwan

Amid the CCP’s threats to invade Taiwan, whether Japan would be willing to get involved in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait has been a focal point in examining Japan’s evolving defense policy in the past few years.

The LDP has generally supported revising Article 9 of Japan’s postwar constitution, which contains a no-war clause that renounces the use of military force to settle international disputes. Therefore, Japan’s military may only exercise self-defense when the country is under attack and is constitutionally banned from initiating military acts.

Abe and his successors have long called for revising the clause to allow Japan to take a more active role in defense and regional security in the face of threats from China and North Korea. However, the revision would require a supermajority in Japan’s parliament as well as a referendum.

Nevertheless, the Abe administration reinterpreted the constitution to include “collective self-defense,” which allows Japan to take military action when an ally is under attack. Japan has not defined which country other than the United States constitutes an “ally.”

“I think that strategic ambiguity has changed for Japan,” O’Connor said, “The Constitution used to be very clear, with a very defensive posture, but now they’re changing that. They clearly feel that there are some real threats that they need to be able to respond to.”