Over 1 million migrants are expected to arrive in Australia from this financial year until 2028, according to the latest budget figures.
The new numbers emerge as migration takes centre stage in the political debate, as well as concerns about its impact on housing affordability and local services.
By the end of the last financial year in 2025, federal Treasury estimated a net migration rate of 305,000.
According to forecasts, this financial year will see 295,000 migrants arrive, followed by 245,000, and then 225,000 in the 2027-28 period. The total comes to about 1.07 million.
“Net overseas migration (NOM) has declined by around 45 percent from its peak in 2022–23 and is forecast to continue declining through to 2027–28,” the budget says.
“Arrivals of New Zealand citizens are also expected to remain strong, reflecting Australia’s relatively favourable labour market conditions.”
The budget figures also reveal the cost to Australia of managing unlawful migration with authorities spending $2.19 billion in this area in 2025-26.
Meanwhile, the government will tinker with how it processes new arrivals.
Of the 185,000 spots available to permanent migrants, about 70 percent will be for skilled workers and two-thirds already being in the country. The remaining 55,000 will be filled by those currently overseas.
Migration Boom From India
Recent data revealed Indian-born migrants are
now the largest new cohort of residents in Australia with 971,020 individuals by 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
This figure has ballooned from the previous 449,040 in 2015.
British migrants have traditionally been the largest source of new residents, but that number dropped slightly to 970,950 people in 2025.
While the third-largest cohort are China-born migrants at 731,540.
One Nation Surges As Migration Concerns Continue
Concern about migration volumes has been a major driver behind the surging popularity of the conservative-leaning One Nation, which recently won the closely-watched Farrer by-election, taking a seat held by the Coalition since 1949.
One Nation promotes a 130,000 hard annual cap on migration into Australia.
“We’ve got to address immigration it’s simple as that,” said new MP David Farley after emphatically winning the regional electorate.
“We embrace [migrants] but we’re not going to entertain people to come here and live off our balance sheet, our purse and give us nothing,” Farley told supporters.
One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson (L) and incoming member for Farrer David Farley (R) attend a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia on May 13, 2026. (Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images)
The surge of the party has compelled the centre-right Liberal Party to adopt its own harder immigration policy.
Leader Angus Taylor has pledged to crack down on around 65,000 people who are on expired student or protection visas.
Taylor has also proposed implementing an “Australian Values Statement” that is legally binding on new migrants and can lead to deportation if breached.
“Australians see the erosion of national culture and the balkanisation of communities that has come from immigration policies that have not prioritised values,” he said.
“Indeed, Australians are worried we’re on the same disastrous road as those parts of the world, and they want change, and the Coalition is determined to deliver change for the better.”
