China has recorded a new low in marriage registrations, with total registrations dropping to 4.747 million couples for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of over 15.5 percent.

According to the data published on Nov. 1 by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, marriage registrations nationwide for the first nine months of 2024 were 4.747 million couples, down from 5.690 million in the same period last year, a reduction of 943,000 couples.

Notably, marriage registrations in the first half of 2024 were already at a near-record low, decreasing by 494,000 couples year-on-year. This suggests that from July to September, the number of marriage registrations plummeted by 445,000 couples.

According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs’ statistical data, the country’s marriage registrations had been on a downward trend for several years prior to a slight recovery in 2023.

High Unemployment a Factor

China watchers attributed the reluctance of young people to get married to the high unemployment rate and rising living costs.

“Many people I know, including college graduates and some postgraduates, are currently unemployed and staying at home,” Ji Feng, a leader of the Guizhou University Students’ Autonomous Federation during the 1989 student protest, told The Epoch Times in June.

“The economic downturn has left many struggling to afford even basic meals, shifting priorities towards survival above all else. For most, marriage has taken a back seat.”

While in Feng’s time, the typical age to get married was 25, many young people in China today remain single into their 30s.

“The primary focus is now on securing a livelihood, finding employment, and pursuing meaningful work. Survival has become the utmost priority,” Ji said.

Laws Revised to Encourage Marriage

Chinese lawmakers, who find the sign troubling, have revised a draft law to make it simpler to register for marriage and more difficult to get a divorce.

On Aug. 13, the Ministry of Civil Affairs released a draft for public consultation on the “Regulations on Marriage Registration (Revised Draft),” which states that marriage registration will no longer require a household registration book while filing for divorce will be subject to a 30-day cooling-off period.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping said that women have a critical role and must establish a “new trend of family.”

Doing a good job in women’s work is not only related to women’s own development but also to “family harmony, social harmony, national development, and national progress,” Xi said in late 2023.

He said it is necessary to “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing and strengthen guidance on young people’s view on marriage, childbirth, and family.”

Impact on Birth Rate

Analysts predict that 2024 will see the fewest marriage registrations in China since 1980, which can affect the birth rate.

In the past decade, the number of marriage registrations in the first three quarters generally accounted for between 72 and 79 percent of the year, said He Yafu, the author of Population Crisis: Reflecting on China’s Family Planning Policy.

Therefore, He said, it is expected that this year’s total marriage registrations will be between 6.01 million and 6.59 million couples, with a median of around 6.3 million couples.

Even if it reaches the upper limit of 6.59 million couples, it will still be fewer than the number of marriage registrations in 2022, He said, adding that the decline in marriage registrations this year also suggests a drop in birth rates for next year.

Reuters contributed to this report.