Pennsylvania could not only determine on Nov. 5 which party wins the White House, but also which party wins the Senate.

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is running for a fourth term but will have to beat the Republican nominee, millionaire businessman and military veteran Dave McCormick.

The FiveThirtyEight average shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point in the presidential race, while the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average shows the latter leading the former by just 0.1 percentage points.

But Casey leads McCormick in the RCP average by 3.3 percentage points. A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll shows Casey up by 4 percentage points. Cook Political Report on Oct. 21 changed its rating for the race to “toss-up” from “lean Democrat.”

McCormick has acknowledged the race would be close.

“I always knew from Day One it was going to be a very close race,” he said in response to a question from The Epoch Times during a Q&A with reporters following a speech to grassroots volunteers with Americans for Prosperity Action, the largest conservative grassroots organization in the United States, ahead of them knocking on doors on his behalf on Sep. 10.

“The key for me winning is to be able to talk to voters that are on the fence, voters that could go either way,” he said.

Casey, who was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania—the same birthplace as President Joe Biden—has been in the Senate since 2007. He previously was Pennsylvania state treasurer and state auditor. His father, Bob Casey Sr., was governor of the state between 1987 and 1995. He has tended to vote in line with Senate Democrat leadership and Biden.

One issue on which Casey has gone back and forth is abortion, a top issue in the past couple of election cycles.

While he has a lifetime score of 68 percent from Planned Parenthood, he has voted against the pro-abortion side at times. In 2021, he voted for a GOP amendment that would have restricted abortion access for low-income women. In 2018 and 2020, he voted in favor of a bill that would have banned abortion nationwide after 20 weeks. In 2021, however, he voted against an amendment that would have done the same.

McCormick served in the U.S. Army and fought in the 1991 Gulf War. He went into the business world, working for firms including McKinsey & Co. and Bridgewater Associates, where he was president. He served in numerous roles in the Bush administration. His wife, Dina Powell, served in the Bush and Trump administrations. McCormick narrowly lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania to TV star Dr. Mehmet Oz.

McCormick faced no opposition in the 2024 primary as he was endorsed by Trump, who called him “smart” and “successful.”

“He’s a good man. He wants to run a good ship,” Trump said at an April 13 rally in Pennsylvania.

McCormick accepted Trump’s endorsement.

“Thank you, President Trump! Together we will deliver a big win for Pennsylvania and America in November,” he posted on X.

McCormick’s campaign has focused on the economy, crime, fentanyl, the border, and energy. It has also sought to tie Casey to the Biden administration’s policies. McCormick branded himself as someone who has served in the military and private sector versus a career politician.

Fred Foley, an adjunct political science professor at La Salle University, said that inflation and other economic issues have hurt Casey.

Casey has criticized McCormick, who was born in Washington, Pennsylvania, for having a residence in Connecticut, splitting his time between there and Pennsylvania.

He has also criticized him for having Bridgewater invest in China.

McCormick defended his record at the firm, saying during an Oct. 15 debate against Casey that it invested globally, including in China, and that its investments were cleared by the U.S. government. He said that the investments were even approved by Casey as state treasurer.

During an Oct. 3 debate with McCormick, Casey tied McCormick to the conservative agenda.

Casey went after McCormick for being for the 21 percent corporate tax rate enacted under Trump.

“He wants to give it to the billionaires, the people making hundreds of millions in the big corporations, and another big tax cut for the most powerful companies in the world is going to add up to more than $4 trillion,” he said.

Casey, McCormick said, wants “Venezuela-like price controls” in response to high prices.

The McCormick and Casey campaigns did not respond to interview requests.

Pennsylvania-based experts who spoke with The Epoch Times predicted Casey will win the race. Reasons included name recognition, leading in the polls, and incumbency advantage.

Most of them said that Pennsylvania will be key to the GOP’s quest to take back the Senate, which the Democrats control with 51 seats (the three independents caucus with them).

“The GOP needs a two-seat net pickup,” said Villanova University political science professor Jack Johannes, who called McCormick the “first real threat” to Casey keeping his seat. “Montana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania are the best targets. With Maryland likely to elect a Dem, that makes it necessary for the Republicans to win two or three.”

“The Senate race in Pennsylvania is extremely important for both parties in terms of majority party status in the Senate in 2025,” said Brian Fife, professor and chair of the political science department at Lehigh University. “If the Democrats lose the seat, it would be difficult to envision that they could keep control of the Senate.”

But Foley said control of the Senate won’t run through Pennsylvania, but rather Montana and West Virginia, where the GOP is all but guaranteed to flip those seats.

Nonetheless, the presidential race could determine whether Casey or McCormick wins.

“Pennsylvania is essentially neck and neck between Harris and Trump for the presidency,” said Foley. “And how those votes shake out on Election Day could tip the balance between Casey and McCormick.”