Americans dreaming of a white Christmas in 2024 may have the best chance of seeing one in the north-central, northeast, and northwest corners of the country, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.

An eight-to-14-day forecast issued on Dec. 16 predicted that while temperatures will be above average for most of the country from Dec. 24 to Dec. 30, so will the chance of precipitation due to more atmospheric river activity.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced a 40 to 60 percent chance of “heavy precipitation and high elevation snow” in parts of northern California and the Pacific Northwest on Dec. 24, 26, and 27. That includes the Sierra Nevada mountains and portions of western Oregon and Washington.

Further inland, NOAA said that a 40 to 60 percent “risk of heavy snow is forecast across high elevation areas of the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin” beginning Christmas Day and running through Dec. 28. That includes most of Idaho, western portions of Montana and Wyoming, and the eastern edges of Oregon.

The forecast came with a warning of possible flooding and intense winds that could pose a hazard to holiday travel.

Higher than-average precipitation during the holiday week is also expected for most of the nation, although near-normal levels are expected for most of the East Coast and below-average levels are expected for portions of New England and the Southwest.

An NOAA map, published Dec. 16, 2024, showcases the places in the United States that have the best chance of a white Christmas, based on data collected between 1991 and 2020. (NOAA)

Historical Chance of a White Christmas

NOAA released an interactive map on Dec. 16, based on data collected between 1991 and 2020. The map highlights the chances for weather stations across the lower 48 states to have at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas.

Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, for example, has a 98 percent chance of snow on Christmas. Telluride, Colorado, has a 94 percent chance, and Truckee, California, has a 93 percent chance.

Northern portions of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan also show a greater than 90 percent chance of snow, as well as most of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and the Appalachian Mountains also show more than a 50 percent chance of a white Christmas.

Meanwhile, New York City and Philadelphia have a less than 20 percent chance of having a white Christmas based on historical data. Boston has around a 30 percent chance. Washington, DC, has less than a 10 percent chance. Chicago has a 35 percent chance.

Major cities all along the Pacific Coast and the southeast have near zero to zero percent chance.

However, NOAA cautions that the actual conditions in any given year may vary widely from historical data.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac also released its own white Christmas forecast—specifically predicting whether snow will fall from the sky on Dec. 25, as opposed to blanketing the ground.

It predicts a white Christmas in the Heartland, the southern portion of the High Plains region south of I-70, the Rocky Mountains, and Alaska.

There is a chance of a white Christmas in northern Maine, the Ohio Valley, the northern High Plains region, and the Intermountain region surrounding the Rockies, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.