A poll analysis from TIPP Insights shows that while former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, Trump’s gains among black voters might “tip the scales” in his favor.
Trump and Harris are locked in at 48 percent each, according to TIPP in an analysis released Thursday.
The pollster showed that Trump has “made significant inroads among” black voters, at plus-8.1 points, and high school-educated voters, at plus-13.9 points. Trump also made inroads with seniors aged 65 and older, at plus-8, the data show.
“Trump’s gains among minority voters could tip the balance,” TIPP wrote in its report.
The pollster did not include whether either Harris or Trump posted gains with other minority groups, such as Latinos, Asian Americans, or Native Americans. However, it noted that “the biggest shifts are education-based for both candidates.”
Harris, meanwhile, has gained ground with voters with some college education, or plus-6.3 points, and independent voters, at plus-5 points, according to TIPP.
Based on the data, according to TIPP, Trump is not anticipated to win the popular vote because Democrats still have a significant edge in New York state and California, while Republican-controlled Texas only “partially offsets” those two states.
“National polls reflect this imbalance, packed with blue-state voters that skew the numbers in favor of Democrats. But the popular vote is irrelevant in the electoral college,” the analysis said, noting that Trump lost the popular vote by about 4.5 percent but only came within about 45,000 votes in three swing states that could have won him the presidency that year.
“Some media outlets ignore this crucial fact to sell the narrative that Trump can’t win,” the pollster said. “The truth? The race is still razor-close.”
The RealClearPolitics aggregate of recent national polls shows that Trump has a 0.5 percent advantage over Harris as of Thursday afternoon. In comparison with polls around the same time in 2020, then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden had an 8-point advantage over Trump. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton had a 5.9-percent lead.
Trump has an average of a 1-percent lead in the seven battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, a RealClearPolitics aggregate shows.
Compared with 2020, Biden had a 4-percent lead in those states over Trump, whereas Clinton had a 5-point advantage in 2016.
Third-party candidates are eating some share of the total support. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has garnered 0.9 percent support, while independent candidate Cornell West has 1 percent, TIPP shows. About 1.7 percent of people surveyed by the pollster are not sure.
So far, voters appear to be heeding the early vote call. Registered GOP voters have been flocking to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day, with early turnout breaking records in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
Data released by the University of Florida’s Election Lab show that about 60 million people have cast early votes, including 33 million early in-person votes and 29 mail-in ballots.
In the two dozen states that report by party affiliation, a slightly higher number of registered Democrats, about 11.5 million, have voted so far. Meanwhile, about 10.7 million registered Republican voters have cast ballots already, the data show.
The university’s compiled election figures show that about 4.3 million of those who voted early in person were Republicans, outpacing Democrats by about 900,000 votes. About 7.6 million Democrats have so far returned mail-in ballots, compared with a little more than 6 million Republicans. About 19 million Democrats have requested mail-in ballots, while Republicans have requested about 13 million.
Both Trump and Harris are planning a flurry of events as Election Day looms, ramping up their schedule during the race’s final stretch.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
